Pointless Presidential Pfacts #42 - "THE FIRST DEMOCRAT SINCE..."

In presidential history there's always a presidential first. George Washington had a bunch from 1789 to 1797. Until there are more elections of non-white males, then the "firsts" are pretty low key stuff.

President William Jefferson Clinton gives his Second Inaugural Address, the first Democratic president to do so since FDR sixty years prior at the first January 20th inauguration of a president in 1937.

President William Jefferson Clinton's reelection in 1996, the first time I was eligible to vote, was the first time a Democratic president to be reelected since Franklin Roosevelt in 1936, and again in 1940, and again in 1944. Before Roosevelt 32, the last Democratic president to win reelection was Woodrow Wilson, but Wilson never achieved over 50% of the popular vote unlike FDR. Clinton's 1992 and 1996 elections are similar to Wilson's 1912 and 1916 elections in that they both were Democrats to win election and reelection with just a plurality of the popular vote. At that point in 1916, Wilson was the first Democrat reelected, consecutively, since Andrew Jackson's reelection in 1832. Grover Cleveland won the popular vote three elections in a row in 1884, 1888, and 1892, but only the Electoral College in '84 and '92, so in 1912 Wilson was the first Democrat reelected since Cleveland. When FDR passed away just months into his fourth term in 1945, his third vice president, Harry S. Truman became the president. In 1948 Truman won reelection to the presidency in a contest everyone thought his opponent had won. While President Truman is a Democratic president that won reelection, it was also his first and only election at the top of the ticket. President Truman could've ran again at the top of the ticket in 1952 since he was unaffected by the 22nd Amendment, which limited presidents to two terms, but chose against running.

The next Democrat would be John F. Kennedy and he never had the chance to face the voters a second time. His Vice President Lyndon Johnson would succeed Kennedy and follow in Truman's (and Coolidge and Roosevelt 26) footsteps. LBJ would win his own election in 1964, a landslide, but all that would be lost four years later. Johnson 36 would realize he'd face challenges from within his own party when he lost the New Hampshire Primary to Eugene McCarthy in 1968.

Eugene McCarthy's challenge to President Lyndon B. Johnson helped prevent Johnson 36 from being the first Democrat since FDR to win reelection to a second term in 1968.

Hubert Humphrey in 1968 came pretty close to being the next POTUS and in 1972 George McGovern had the opposite experience on his failed attempt at being the next Democratic president. In 1976, in another close election but with 50% of the popular vote, Jimmy Carter won the presidency. In 1980 he had the chance to be the first Democrat to be reelected since FDR. But it wasn't to be Carter. He'd be defeated by former California Governor Ronald Reagan. Carter would be the first incumbent Democratic president to lose reelection since Cleveland's first reelection bid in 1888, however as mentioned above, Cleveland won the popular vote just lost the necessary Electoral College majority AND Cleveland came back four years later and won reelection, non-consecutively. Before Cleveland 22's loss (and win) in 1888, the last incumbent Democratic president to lose reelection was Martin Van Buren. Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan, and Andrew Johnson were never given a chance by the party to face the voters at the top of the ticket. James K. Polk limited himself to one term. In 1848, MVB would try another run at the top of a ticket but lose his non-consecutive run as the Free Soil Party's candidate.

Former President Martin Van Buren's failed third party bid for a non-consecutive second term in 1848 with Charles F. Adams of Massachusetts, grandson of John Adams and son of John Quincy Adams.

Clinton would hold the title as the first Democrat since FDR to win reelection and the first since Wilson since a Democrat won the presidency twice but with a plurality both times. Interestingly, so did Cleveland. President Clinton's eventual Democratic successor 8 years later will hold a new first for a Democrat since...well that's for another time.

2012 Prediction

My first time voting was in 1996, and after I cast my vote I felt I was voting for the winner of the election. In the end, I was right...it was William Jefferson Clinton. I didn't predict his election, but somehow knew he'd be reelected. I was a registered Republican for a couple of months before switching to the Democratic Party just before the election. I turned 18 in July of '96 and, of course, the election was in November.

In 2000, I voted for the incumbent vice president, and somehow believed and thought he would win. I voted the day of the election and of course had no idea that the outcome would not be revealed until December 13, 2000. I don't know why I thought he'd win, even though the popular vote would support my notion that Al Gore was more popular among the electorate than the actual winner, Governor George Bush of Texas. I should've known better since only 4 incumbent vice presidents have won a presidential election. At that point in 2000, Vice President George Bush was the first incumbent vice president to win since Martin Van Buren in 1936. Notice I used the Bush's titles to differentiate them rather than their middle initials. Of course, had Gore used more of President Bill Clinton and simply won his own home state he'd have won the election.

Historically, with the exception of Samuel Tilden, the person that won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote, returned 4 years later and defeated the president elected simply by the Electoral College. Andrew Jackson had the most votes in 1824, but John Quincy Adams was eventually elected president by the House of Representatives because neither candidate had a majority in the Electoral college. President Grover Cleveland won the popular vote in 1888, but Benjamin Harrison won the Electoral College. Four years later, former president Cleveland defeated President Harrison in a rematch. In 2004, Gore joined Tilden by not running again against the man that lost the popular vote but won the presidency. Most likely, Gore didn't run in '04 because Bush was a wartime president and no Democrat was going to beat him. If you asked me on September 10, 2001, if Gore were to run in '04, I'd say he would win. But if you asked me on September 12, 2001, in a post-9/11 America, I'd tell you that Bush would win reelection. I predicted it on that tragic day and proof that Bush was unbeatable is that Gore didn't run and the other most popular Democrat, Hillary Clinton, didn't run. Sure she was a first term U.S. Senator from New York, but in 2002 she was considered a front-runner for the presidential nomination on the Democratic side. But she knew, like Gore did, that she'd lose to a popular wartime president. Called it!

If you follow President Bush's ratings from 9/11, you'll see he has the highest approval rating since his father after the Gulf War. But if you follow those numbers they go down, and a chart would show that if the election of 2004 were in December the president would probably lose. And his poll numbers just kept going down from there. So by 2008, there was no way a Republican could win the presidency. The presidential election of 2008 was pretty much determined during the 2008 Democratic primary/caucus elections between then-senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Once Obama won the nomination it was clear that he'd be winner in November.

As I write this and explain my justifications for the '04 an '08 election predictions, the evidence for reelection was so clear. Since Obama's election in 2008, I've predicted his reelection. As Election Day approaches, it looks like 2012 will be another 2004, 1976, or a 1968 to name a few close elections. But I've always thought that he was unbeatable, maybe it's like my vote for Clinton in '96 and Gore in '00, but the evidence for his reelection is there. The Republicans in 2012 nominated Mitt Romney out of a field that included fringe candidates and the lone logical candidate in Jon Huntsman, and he got no love whereas all those others scared Romney at least once by out polling him. In 2012, the Republicans had to choose a candidate out of the B-team (I don't think B-team is right, maybe Z-team), the no-love-candidate Jon Huntsman, and Etch A Sketch Mitt Romney. The A-Team of the Republican Party didn't show up, Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, and Jeb Bush, to name a few. Jeb Bush at least had his last name as a reason not run.

My prediction of Obama's '12 victory was confirmed by the A-Team GOPers skipping the race because they knew they couldn't defeat a popular president like Obama, just like Gore and Hillary skipping '04. Now if I am wrong, I'll admit it and those A-Team GOPers will be upset that they didn't step up. If I am wrong, I'll still predict that a President Romney will win reelection in 2016, because the economy will be better in the 2013-2017 presidential term and that president will get the credit. Meaning a President Romney will win reelection or President Obama will be able anoint his successor whether that's Vice President Joe Biden, probably-by-then former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, or some other popular Democrat in four years, just like President Theodore Roosevelt did with William Howard Taft in 1908 or Ronald Reagan with Vice President Bush in 1988. Had Gore relied more on the popular Clinton, he too would have received the love of a popular outgoing incumbent. But Gore felt the Lewinsky scandal should not touch him, even though Clinton was popular post-impeachment and more so as an outgoing POTUS.

I don't see my 2012 prediction being wrong, although in the days leading up to election night I'm reminded of the days before 2000. I'm probably questioning myself because of all the articles I read that say how close the election is, or how friends or comments-online-people declaring a Romney landslide victory. I just wonder where are they getting their info since they bash any poll that says Obama will win. Obama's reelection will not just be the first for someone of African ancestry, but also the first time that 3 presidents have been reelected back-to-back since James Monroe succeeded James Madison in 1816 and Madison succeeded Thomas Jefferson in 1808. I'm sure the 57th U.S. Presidential Election will result in the reelection of the 44th President of the United States and 47th Vice President. Why is it the 57th election and 44th POTUS and 47 VPOTUS? That sounds like that can be a pointless presidential pfact, which is probably better than this pointless presidential 'pinion.

Missing Bush

The year I turned 18 was the first time I voted for president of the United States. The year was 1996.

My love of presidential history started years early. I was born when a peanut farmer lived in the White House. As a child of the 1980s, I only knew of Ronald Reagan as the president and thought it natural that the man that was his vice president would go on to become president.

William Jefferson Clinton came into my life as a high school student and I thought he should remain president through my college years.

The 2000 election was the first election that I truly paid close attention to and I cast my vote for the incumbent vice president. And like most Americans I thought he should be the commander-in-chief. The governor of Texas showed he wasn't anything special other than a son of a president. In the end, Vice President Al Gore gave an amazing concession speech on December 13, 2000 ending the race and the post-election race. I remember Bush's acceptance speech, or more specifically where it was delivered and nothing more. But Gore's I remember so much more: "While we yet hold and do not yield our opposing beliefs, there is a higher duty than the one we owe to political party. This is America and we put country before party. We will stand together behind our new president." Why didn't this Gore win? The Gore the country would really come to love was just beginning I guess.

And so our country moved forward. We had a new president. For the second time in our history a son of a president became president. And for the first few months of his presidency I believed history would repeat itself and George W. Bush would be just like that other son of a president, John Quincy Adams, a one term president. Then came September 11, 2001.

By September 12, 2001, I knew that George W. Bush would break history and become a two term president. By breaking history I mean the only one of the father-son combo of presidents and minority presidents, that is to win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote, to go on and win a second term. A national tragedy had occurred and as Gore had told his supporters ten months prior, we had to rally behind our new president. And I did.

Bush amazed me with his address in the National Cathedral on September 14 and then before a joint session of Congress on September 20. He was going after those that attacked us and they would be punished.

Then at the start of 2002, the drum beats of war began and the unified country returned to its election 2000 divisiveness. The war of choice was on and his reelection was still certain. While his poll numbers plummeted from the highs of September 11, 2001 straight down toward the election of 2004, I still knew no one would be able to defeat him.

Bush survived to serve another term. He received 51% of the popular vote, the only president since his father in 1988 to break the 50% barrier. The president had the audacity to claim a mandate. But his second term proved he had no such thing and like other second term presidents his was nothing to brag about. From a failed attempt at revamping social security to mishandling the response to Hurricane Katrina, Bush's second term was not something Americans should be proud of.

What it did provide was fodder for late night comedians. Our troubles of living under another four years of the Bush administration provided many laughs and inspiration for comedy writers.

At the start of 2001 when the Clinton administration came to an end I remember hearing the late night hosts saddened by the loss of material as the Clinton administration left office. They knew they were getting something special in Bush, seeing him on the campaign trail the previous year. Little did they know that the next eight years would provide more material that would out match the eight years of Clinton.

The scare tactics, fear mongering, incompetence, and arrogance will not be missed.

The year I turned 30 was the fourth time I voted for president of the United States. The year was 2008.

We'll see how things turned out.